Aumento del livello marino e siti archeologici costieri: i possibili scenari in Sicilia fino al 2150

Abstract

Sea level rise is one of the most insidious effects of global warming. This phenomenon is shaping our planet's continental and
island coastlines, with significant implications on the environment, economy and human activities. In this context, Sicily, due to
its unique position in the centre of the Mediterranean basin, is particularly exposed to the multiple effects of climate change. In
this brief study, we aim to provide a summary of the exposure to climate risk and the likely future coastal settings for some of the
main archaeological sites located along the coastline of this region, often on sensible geological and geomorphological environment,
which are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise. Based on the analysis of multidisciplinary data, including climate
projections provided by the IPCC, which have been revised for the contribution of vertical land movements by high-resolution
geodetic and topographic data of the coastal strip, we present flooding scenarios due to potential marine ingression up to the year
2150. In particular, we identify 14 main sites where human settlements have been recognised since the Bronze Age. As example
sites, the island of Mozia on the west coast of Sicily and Marzamemi on the east coast are briefly discussed. These sites have undergone
major morphological changes of the coastline since the beginning of settlement and, particularly in the last century,
erosion, shoreline retreat and subsidence have a significant impact on their current and future conservation. The available scientific
data allow us to visualise likely scenarios up to 2150, which are useful for understanding and addressing the ongoing effects
of climate change, to support the fight against climate change and build a resilient future. Adopting strategies shared between
scientists, archaeologists and political parties can help to identify best practice fo the protection and conservation of coastal archaeological
heritage sites in parallel with those on global warming, to take appropriate adaptation measures.